Understanding respiratory virus season forecasts is an ever-present need for clinical and research laboratories so they can appropriately prepare for the potential severity and impact of these viruses. Let’s examine what researchers are anticipating for this upcoming season, with a focus on influenza, SARS-CoV-2, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).
The Southern Hemisphere’s viral patterns are a helpful indicator for the potential impact of seasonal illnesses in the Northern Hemisphere. As per the CDC, the flu season in this part of the world was largely similar to those in recent years.1 Some highlights from their report include:
It should be noted, however, that variations in predominant strains and differing levels of population immunity can affect the predictive power of the Southern Hemisphere’s respiratory virus season.
Based on Southern Hemisphere data, it is anticipated that this year’s respiratory virus season will closely reflect the impact and severity of last season, with the peak hospitalization rate estimated to be approximately 20 of every 100,000 individuals.
While it’s still too early to consider current prevalence rates as belonging to “respiratory virus season,” these are the trends as they are currently appearing:
For up-to-date information, the furnished links provide interactive charts to make moment-to-moment case tracking easy to access.
For the 2024-2025 flu season, the CDC has recommended that the U.S. transition from the currently-used quadrivalent vaccine to the trivalent vaccine, which covers one influenza A (H1N1) virus, one influenza A (H3N2) virus, and one influenza B/Victoria lineage virus.5 This reflects the removal of the influenza B/Yamagata lineage virus, which has not been detected since before March 2020.
While the government’s Bridge Access Program, which was used to provide free vaccinations to many Americans, has ended, the CDC has recently announced that they will be providing $62 million to states to help furnish free COVID-19 vaccines to low-income patients.
Dr. Peter Marks, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, offers guidance on obtaining the assistance, “I would encourage folks to be reaching out to their local public health departments, their state health departments, but in addition, their federally qualified health centers as well.”6
As the lab community approaches the 2024-2025 respiratory virus season, staying informed on public health data continues to be of eminent importance. While past seasons and Southern Hemisphere trends can serve to set general expectations, respiratory viruses are by their nature unpredictable, which makes it important to stay vigilant, always learning, and adaptable.